The Case for Global Naval Disaster Response Fleets, and the Use of Deep Water Marine Caches For Local Disaster Preparedness

Current world conditions reveal large populations inhabiting known Seismic areas, thus exposing them to devastating Tsunami’s as well if located near Marine environments. Many of these same populations are also now exposed to great Ocean Storms of alarming intensities. Coastal earthquakes and Tsunami’s wreak $Billions in damage, and cause 10’s if not 100K’s of deaths. Great ocean storms displace and disrupt thousands again. In this time of global high risk, we must examine if we have employed all of our great knowledge to address a world we know will change with great energy. At those times we know people will have to endure impassable roads and disruptions to electrical and clean water services. At those times we know vast populations will become exposed to diseases, pollution, hunger and thirst. All the while exposed to the elements. Governmental responses become colossal struggles to accumulate and deliver Relief supplies upon challenged routes. Given the certainty of such cataclysmic events in mankind’s future, and the managerial complexities therein, it has become even more necessary to give Humanitarian Responders every advantage that can be devised.

Discussion:

Disaster benefit can be derived by any people capable of Incident Management by Sea. Many of us have Mariner heritage. Our deep water vessels do not suffer the effects of earthquake nor Tsunami, and are engineered to withstand open ocean storms. Thus, they are indeed reliable platforms for Humanitarian Response when all on land are struggling in devastation. Based on the Incident Management System, effective Disaster Response can be enhanced by combining our remarkable naval and marine capabilities with our remarkable land and air efforts. Again, deep water vessels are impervious to Earthquake and Tsunami, and are severe storm resilient.

Proposal for thought:

To deploy Disaster Response Fleets would be a game changer in our struggle to respond to crushed populations, for such Fleets would provide instantaneous Air Response, and probable sustained marine amphibious Response within 72 hours after natural disaster. Such Fleets could be prepositioned to area’s prone to be ravaged. Such Fleets would no doubt be force multipliers, enabling local services to become functional sooner. They offer stable, intact, flexible, and reliable Incident Management and are equipped with world class Communication systems. They routinely serve as our heaviest haulers, and sometimes even as our Hospitals. Prepositioned Disaster Response Fleets could cover large geographical areas. If well provisioned, multiple Fleets could patrol the disaster prone, assisting each other as well as Local Emergency Management. Such Fleets are within grasp, the reinvention of suitable vessels is not necessary for there are already so many. Existing ship designs currently deployed are beneficial to Disaster Preparedness, Response, Mitigation, and Recovery. If only such Fleets existed now! Not applying our full Nautical advantage will result in prolonged human suffering and delayed Recovery to Earthquake ravaged marine Communities. We must use everything we know to address a common devastation. Putting calculated Nautical Disaster Response Fleets to sea would quickly multiply Local Disaster Relief capability. Local Emergency Management would benefit from mobile and intact pre designed structures of all types. This Fleet could conceivably arrive to disasters with Air transported assets immediately, and again in abundance in 3 days. If thus prepared, Local Emergency Management might benefit from not one but multiple Fleets. With an easily achievable adjustment in Nautical and Marine commitment, we can procure improved Responses to natural disasters. If we do not form such Fleets, our children (who do not wish to suffer), will. The costs of such Fleets compare’s lightly to a future without them, as we must expensively adjust to a different kind of world when natural mayhem strikes.

Very achievable:

This proposal has two ambitions; to facilitate Nautical and Marine Disaster Response, and diminish human suffering. What is remarkable is the ease of putting such Fleets to sea once committed and in quick order. Therefore, all of human accomplishment should be brought to bear in our mutual desire to harness the beast of Disaster under some control. We must become more confident of our common abilities to overcome our common disabilities, and thus be prepared together in full measure.

Local contributions:

It would seem critical for Local Emergency Management to take full advantage of the protection deep water offers from earthquake and Tsunami, for it is assured anything upon land will be difficult to use, while everything upon deep water remains unimpeded. The storage of Communal Disaster Response, Relief and Rebuilding supplies upon deep water must then be taken full advantage of, utilizing easily assembled Barges. Such Barges, prepared prior to disaster would be pre designed for Communal needs. Relief and Recovery functions such as Red Crescent, Red Cross, PUD’s and Road Dept’s, could store Barged Disaster Cache’s. All dependably accessible. For it will certainly be observed that after an Earthquake the land has taken a beating, but come on in, the water is fine. Should Communities store Disaster Response Assets on deep water, the result is another Disaster Response Multiplier. Local backup Communications for example, stored and maintained on buoyant barges, could quickly erect ballooned internet towers, in the same manner Google transmits the internet to remote Amazon jungles. Given the distribution and dependence on smart phones, this seems an opportunistic form of back up Communication, thus empowering a Community to Recover sooner. Closer examination reveals Road and Transportation Departments could pre store heavy equipment and Infrastructure Components. Electrical generators, fuel, clean water, food, housing, water treatment, morgues etc, are all easily barged. If we know a Community is Earthquake prone, then we know how hard it will be hit. What we don’t know is when. Given the certainty of a future together during times of great sacrifice, our Children require us to prepare for expeditious Recovery. We must learn to first survive, then to re-thrive. It does not appear to be unachievable, just a commitment to proven Scientific Resiliency. Locally barged Marine Disaster Relief and Recovery assets would significantly reduce human suffering and restore Communities to prosperity sooner. Combined with at sea Disaster Response Fleets, preparations have multiplied at least two fold, and all immediately available when disaster erupts. The costs of manning an ocean Fleet could be offset by prudent Local Emergency Management investment into Marine Disaster Cache’s. Let us also consider the advantages such barges could offer as anchor points for aquaculture, thus becoming a source of emergency food. Shellfish, Crustaceans, Cephalopods and perhaps even fish, conveniently attached to our Disaster Response Barges, happily thriving until needed. Another step towards enabling people to move from being victims, to being survivors. As for the magnitude of what the Cascadia Megaquake will do to us in the Pacific Northwest, and the forecasted year before housing services and schools resume, we must ask: 1. How would the Pacific Northwest like to survive devastation? (I suggest eating oysters and calamari). 2. What kind of Pacific Northwest would we like to return to? (I suggest a confident and comfortable one). A Community thus prepared conceivably could return to prosperity in half the time. The goal of such preparations would not only be to provide immediate disaster relief, but to start Rebuilding the day after.

Prepare the Fleets and Barges:

With the Incident Management System as guide, all 18 Emergency Support Functions are serviceable by existing ship designs. Consistently, Incident Command System functions are also easily accommodated by current ship designs. We must therefore consider taking these designs to their full Humanitarian potential while evaluating if the investment is worthy. In the case of the Pacific Northwest Cascadia Earthquake of the United States and British Columbia, it is estimated the Washington State economy will suffer $49 Billion of losses, and Oregon $32 Billion. Speculated losses of $20 Billion to California, and $50 Billion to British Columbia are added to the $50+Billion our Tsunami will create for our Pacific neighbors on opposite shores. This must be combined with the added costs of other naturally occurring disasters such as Hurricanes or Wildfires that happen near the same time. This could mean a $500 Billion hit to world economies that are to be absorbed in rapid order. I haven’t a clue whether any of these cost estimates are accurate, but we are better served to not quibble over accuracy towards a foe so large at a time like this. We are also better served by agreeing to accept our hard losses and to embark on new courses of action. In the drama of Marine Seismic Disasters, we should remind ourselves of how many ships we’ve lost at sea due to Earthquake or Tsunami. The remarkable answer is 0, proving there is a man made device that survives this natural disaster 100% of the time. All kinds of Seismic activity can happen below deep water vessels, and they may not even become aware of it. We should all take a moment to thank our Maritime ancestors. Disaster Response Fleets and Barges appear to be good investments, yet cautious skepticism should accompany the planning of any Sea Based operation. Nautically related items proven seaworthy are expensive. They have to be to survive open ocean environments, and yet financing is found to embark these great vessels around the globe on a daily basis, 24/7. There they are after every Earthquake, perfectly intact and capable of building railroads and highways right away. As mentioned, I’ve no clue if any Cascadia Earthquake cost figures are accurate, but the complexity of the matter inspires one to consider investing $75 Billion to address a potential $500 Billion loss that could address 4 types of natural disaster. An investment in a Disaster Response Fleets and Disaster Deep Water Cache’s is an investment in Disaster Response and Recovery force multipliers. This would seem wise, especially from the standpoint of future generations, and in this debate it is their interests we must obey.

 

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The reply from the Director of the Natural Hazards Center:

Dear John, if I may,

Thank you so much for the message and for forwarding this thread of communications concerning the possibility for introducing innovative approaches to responding to what most predict will be a highly catastrophic event. I am so thrilled to see the positive reception you have received from others working in this space. I think what I can best contribute – as this is indeed outside of my own domain of expertise – is a linkage to a network of dedicated researchers, practitioners, and policy makers through the knowledge translation and networking activities that the Natural Hazards Center helps to support.

 

You can learn more here: https://hazards.colorado.edu/

and you can sign up for resources here: https://hazards.colorado.edu/signup

 

I am not sure if your travels ever bring you to Colorado, but this summer we will hold our 44^th (!) annual Natural Hazards Workshop, which attracts some of the nation’s leading researchers, policy makers, and practitioners in the hazards and disaster space. I think this could be an important place for connecting with others, gaining insight, and sharing ideas.

 I am, today and always, wishing you all the best.

Lori

Lori Peek, Ph.D.

Professor, Department of Sociology

Director, Natural Hazards Center

University of Colorado Boulder

https://hazards.colorado.edu/

 

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My Initial Response

It took me awhile after Mike’s presentation to realize the Cascadia event he described was going to be an International Incident worthy of United Nations OCHA attention. It was going to need a base at sea for all the Juan De Fuca stakeholders and UN Representatives to be able to gather to. Luckily, we all have mariner infrastructures that can accommodate this. Human kind has held high level International meetings at sea before, and we will need to do it again for a Cascadia level event.

A brief historical prospective revealed that the 1903 Militia Act (the foundation of our National Guard system) also included language that created State Navies and Naval Reserves. Pacific NW States initially used them. Washington State’s was decommissioned in 1917. Some State Navies are still currently active in Texas, New York and Ohio for example. When considering the magnitude and long Recovery of a Cascadia Megaquake, the facts that: 1. Highly durable sea vessels are impervious to earthquake/Tsunami (and are severe storm resilient). 2. Our strong maritime infrastructure of the Pacific NW and 3. The absolute necessity for PNW mariners post seismic Response and Recovery contributions, PNW States should recommission their Navies and Reserves and blend them in as State Coast Guards to  fully manned operations as soon as possible. Deployed at sea, this form of Civil Defense would remain intact after seismicity and have the authority to render Rescues, Response and Recovery efforts with unimpeded water and air access to devastated marine Communities for weeks afterward. State Coast Guards should be utilized, since by law all maritime traffic on American waters falls under United States Coast Guard overall authority. Such State Coast Guard assets would ensure that PNW Emergency Managers would have intact Emergency Operations Center(s) throughout the PNW should theirs be rendered unusable. This natural disaster at sea asset would be immediately available to invoke the NIMS Command Structure and Emergency Support Functions for extended periods and should have the full authority of the United States, Canada and the United Nations to respond to PNW disasters.

From an Incident Management prospective, we must take advantage of the fact that this Essential Service Function (ESF) 1 Maritime Transportation services can operate on seismic free deep water for extended periods of time. Hence, after a significant Cascadia earthquake we expect all deep water vessels to remain intact and potentially helpful for Response and Recovery purposes. These qualities therefore should put our maritime capabilities at the forefront of Command and Control of marine disasters of all types, especially marine seismicity. They can facilitate and support all other ESF and Command Functions as well. Unfortunately, shallow water and land connected maritime support infrastructure will remain seismically exposed, and any watercraft connected to it when an earthquake erupts will be challenged to make it to Tsunami free deep water in time.

NOAA has established that vessels on waters 50 fathoms deep will be shielded from seismicity, (ref. https://seagrant.noaa.gov/News/Article/ArtMID/1660/ArticleID/533), which is a depth easily found in the Puget Sound and the entire PNW. It is therefore suggested we take every nautical advantage of this depth available to us in Preparation for any of the forecasted PNW seismic events. With our inherent Maritime capabilities, we can utilize these earthquake/Tsunami free areas in which to make a stand against the Cascadia Megaquake, by pre-establishing at Sea Emergency Operation Centers capable of viewing the entire PNW during a common devastation as well as locally Barged Disaster Cache’s.

For added benefit, this combined Nautical/Marine/Land/Air natural disaster stratagem can be applied to multiple natural disasters by any Marine Community in the world. They can be utilized for inland disaster assistance as well.

Given the heavy hauling and passenger capacity of railroads and the facts that it is cheaper and faster to build railroad track than highway, the strategic recovery of the PNW post Cascadia Megaquake can be enhanced with a maritime assistance to rebuilding our Railway infrastructure. The Rail system would then enjoy inland reconstruction support from one end, while maritime support is applied to the other. Maritime assisted rapid restoration of the PNW railways would then leave the area with a dependable and durable land transport systems long afterwards while road reconstruction continues. Their construction crews could be assigned to both rail and road repair if needed, but again rail appears to require less resources to re-establish. Whatever Transportation Rebuilding strategy is decided, this maritime assisted Rebuilding approach should be equipped with as much versatile 3D Infrastructure Construction creation devices as possible, since no one can realistically predict which components will be necessary to Rebuild PNW Marine Communities afterwards. 3D Construction methods would allow a great deal of adaptability.

It is essential that Maritime Administration Reserve Fleets be bolstered for any future natural disaster, not only for post PNW seismic events, but also for ocean storms that are expected to be of greater intensities.

Individual PNW Marine Communities should also take full anti seismic nautical advantage of their deep waters by preparing accessible Barged Disaster Cache’s beforehand, thus further empowering local authorities to Respond, Recover and Rebuild more efficiently from earthquake and Tsunami on their own. After a significant marine seismic event no one realistically expects land transportation to be useable, and getting around by boat will probably be the only way we can reliably be transported for quite some time. It seems unrealistic for Communities to hope that Insurance Programs can cover all the losses from seismicity of this magnitude, and therefore we in the PNW must take our potential fate more into our own hands by being ready to Respond and Rebuild at a moment’s notice from the Sea.  We have an opportunity to conduct a preemptive strike on this and other types of natural disasters simply by relying more on our nautical advantage. Therefore, it is asserted we must address this common seismic foe with our common anti-seismic abilities. Potentially a Community could use such Barged Disaster Cache’s for FEMA Emergency housing or to act as anchor points for aquaculture, (thus becoming a naturally renewable source of Emergency Food), or as platforms to erect ballooned Communication Internet Towers. PNW Communities with their local Emergency Managers and NGO’s should be afforded opportunities to design their Barged Disaster Cache’s as their particular circumstances dictate. It is theorized a Community thus prepared would return to prosperity dramatically sooner than current forecasts. Governmental financial assistance in the creation of locally Barged Community Disaster Cache’s would seem appropriate to consider.

As for the construction of barges of such a program, the Marine Exchange of the Puget Sound has confirmed the viability of modifying water tight Cargo Shipping containers (which are abundant and affordable) into buoyant barge making block components of great durability. These same containers, (or anything else), can then be arranged on top of the buoyant ones in any fashion deemed necessary, thus affording the benefit of their resilient open ocean design. Kitsap County Emergency Manager Elizabeth Klute has experience with the use of Cargo containers for disaster purposes from her previous Caribbean assignment and reports special coatings will need to be applied.

Again, PNW land usage expects to be very challenging post Cascadia earthquake, making travel by water craft necessary in the aftermath. Fortunately, water craft are abundant in the PNW. It is also strategically necessary for them to survive earthquake and/or Tsunami, for they could serve so many post marine Community disaster purposes.

 

LIST OF INTERESTED FOLLOWERS:

*Operation “Marvin Shields”

*The Puget Sound Commander of the 13^th District US Coast Guard

*Virginia Mason Memorial Hospital Emergency Preparedness

*Sea Scout Ship 1212 Port Angeles Washington

*Washington Youth Academy Bremerton Washington

*The Marine Exchange of the Puget Sound

*Former Respiratory Therapy Instructors at the Pima Medical Institute Renton Washington

*Acquainted Citizens of Washington State

*Steve McLaughlin Ret USN CMDR/FEMA Region X Instructor

*Team Rubicon Region X

*Family and Friends via Facebook

*The Office of Washington State Senator Kevin Van De Wege

*The Yakima Office of US Senator Patty Murray

*The Richland Office of US Senator Maria Cantwell

*The Yakima Office of US Representative Dan Newhouse

*Former First Responder and Hospital coworkers

*Fellow Washington State Civic Volunteers

*Suquamish Tribal Emergency Management

*Kitsap County Dept of Emergency Management

*Jefferson County Dept of Emergency Management

*Pacific County Dept of Emergency Management

*Grays Harbor County Dept of Emergency Management

*Yakima County Dept of Emergency Management

*The Office of Yakama Nations Corrections Department

*The Jefferson County Board of Commissioners

*The Washington State Library Association

*Yakima Army National Guard and Recruiters

*Jefferson County Transportation and Engineering

*Office of the Washington State Insurance Commissioner

*Amateur Radio Operators in Missouri and Washington State

*Port Authorities from Bremerton, Kingston, and Port Townsend

*The Harbor Masters of Port Ludlow, Bainbridge Island, and Poulsbo

*The Kingston Yacht Club

*International Lions Club Disaster Services

*The Lions Club of Port Orchard Washington

*The Bainbridge Island Senior Center

*East Jefferson Fire and Rescue

*Kitsap County CERT

*The USS Turner Joy Foundation

*Kitsap Resiliency Project

*Crew members of the Washington State Ferry System

*Collaboration Coffee of Yakima Washington

*David Helvarg of Blue Frontiers

*James Fritz Engineering Consultant Port Townsend Washington

*Office of Community Risk Reduction Bainbridge Island Fire Department

*The Seattle Chamber of Commerce

*The Pacific Northwest Economic Region

*The Center for Regional Disaster Resilience

*CanadaPond Products

*Washington State Department of Natural Resources Office of Geology

*The US Army Corps of Engineers

*Washington State Emergency Management Division

*Oregon Office of Emergency Management

*British Columbia Emergency Management

*Medecins Sans Frontieres

*Internet connected Disaster Researchers and Emergency Management Web servers

*O.H. Hindsdale Wave Laboratory Oregon State University Corvallis

*The Naval Postgraduate School of Monterey California

*The Directors of the Disaster Research Center of the University of Delaware

*The Director of the Natural Hazards Center of the University of Colorado/Boulder

*Director of the National Science Foundation (I hope)

*United Nations OCHA, (I hope)

*Deceased Ret USN CMDR Ronald McGreggor Arlington Virginia

*Special thanks to the Library systems of Jefferson (Port Hadlock), Yakima, Clallam Counties and the internet

*Yakima Designs

*West Hills Cemetery Yakima Wa

*I also need to follow up with Earl Johnson, North Tower 9/11 survivor, author of “Stairwell to Heaven” and former Bainbridge Island Fire Commissioner. You never know who you’ll meet on a Washington State Ferry, or what they will do for you.